Consider a coin toss, many would guess that the probability of 2 or more heads in 3 tosses is the same as the probability of 200 or more heads in 300 tosses, the proportion of heads being the same. Actually, the probability of 2 or more heads in 3 tosses is 0.5 and the probability of 200 or more heads in 300 tosses is only about 0.000000004. Many probability concepts are similarly counterintuitive. This work examines the historical evolution of the concept of probability and considers certain influences and notions that could interfere with understanding it. It also tests the concept of probability and the incidence of misconceptions of probability among students (n=66) at a graduate school of education in order to assess teachers’ understanding of the subject. This understanding is clearly necessary to effectively teach probability. Study participants demonstrated basic knowledge of probability but were less successful at more complicated problems and exhibited many misconceptions. Participants who had reported higher levels of formal probability preparation tended to perform better, suggesting that more education may help. Gender differences were also observed.

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